WORKING PAPERS 

• A new approach to measuring and interpreting spatial agglomeration in the cities: The case of Madrid.(with Francisco Javier Velázquez Angona; David Martín Barroso)  [Link]

-Manuscript in preparation for submission

Preprint version available at:  http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5279551

Abstract

This article proposes a new family of distance-based indicators for measuring the spatial concentration of productive activity. Building on the five-step stylisation of previous indicators, several important innovations are introduced: (i) indicators are constructed at the level of individual production points; (ii) two distinct aspects of first-order concentration, those related to casual location rather than productive interaction, are corrected; (iii) data-driven methods are implemented to address edge effects; (iv) distance-independent synthetic indicators are developed to provide concentration diagnostics around each point; (v) aggregate indicators are constructed not only by productive sector but also from a geographical perspective; and (vi) a solution is introduced to enable statistical significance testing of the aggregated indicators. The basic indicator is presented in a simplified, unweighted form, that is, without accounting for differences in the weights of neighbouring production points. An application using data from Madrid yields relevant insights. Significant concentration is observed in land-intensive, high-value, and tourism-related activities, such as manufacturing on the periphery and services in the city centre. In contrast, everyday consumption activities appear more spatially dispersed, due to their reliance on proximity to consumers. High levels of concentration persist in both central neighbourhoods and peripheral industrial areas.

• Measuring sectoral agglomeration with a weighted, distance-based point-level index: evidence from Chinese manufacturing (with Francisco Javier Velázquez Angona; David Martín Barroso) [Link]

-Manuscript in preparation for submission

Abstract

This paper introduces a weighted, distance-based method for measuring manufacturing agglomeration at the firm level, enabling comprehensive analysis across all sectors and regions in China despite large-scale computational demands. The approach uses precise geographic coordinates, corrects for edge effects, isolates colocation driven by productive interactions, and produces distance-independent synthetic indicators. These indicators can be aggregated by sector and geography, and their statistical significance tested with a new procedure. Applying the method to Chinese manufacturing reveals pronounced spatial concentration along the East Coast, declining toward the west and north. Resource-based, capital-intensive, and certain high-tech industries are highly concentrated, while some technology-based sectors and labour-intensive activities are more dispersed. The latter pattern, consistent with theoretical expectations yet contrasting with previous studies, likely reflects the inclusion of small firms. Overall, urban agglomerations exhibit a strong capacity to attract and sustain industrial clusters. 

• Co-Agglomeration distribution of economic activities in the city of Madrid.(with Francisco Javier Velázquez Angona; David Martín Barroso)

-Manuscript in preparation for submission

Abstract

This paper extends the distance-based indicators to measurement of co-agglomeration, with a particular focus on the relatively unexplored concept of global co-agglomeration, defined as the capacity of production points within a sector or geographical area to attract other activities without distinguish between them. The proposed methodology enables the formulation of both global and bilateral co-agglomeration measures, demonstrating the flexibility of distance-based approaches in capturing spatial economic phenomena. Empirical analysis is conducted using data from the 2014 and 2019 Census of Premises and Activities provided by the Madrid City Council, serving as a case study. The results reveal a high degree of stability in co-agglomeration patterns at the individual, sectoral, and geographical levels over the two years, suggesting the presence of long-term structural spatial dynamics. Activities related to daily consumption and leisure exhibit strong co-agglomeration attractiveness. Conversely, Some land-intensive and certain creative industries are less likely to exhibit co-location attractiveness. These co-located activities are concentrated in the central neighbourhoods of the city, demonstrating notable stability over the two years analysed. 

WORKING PAPERS IN SPANISH

• Los Efectos de los Shocks en el Precio del Petróleo en seis economías de la OCDE y la crisis financiera

(with Mª Esther Fernádez Casillas; Jesús Ruiz Andújar)  [available upon request]

Resumen

En este trabajo se estudia empíricamente la relación entre los shocks del precio del petróleo y las variables macroeconómicas crecimiento del producto interior bruto y tasa de inflación. Asimismo, se evalúa el impacto de la reciente recesión en dicha relación, para estos países de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico (OCDE): Estados Unidos, España, Alemania, Francia, Italia y Reino Unido. Para ello, se utilizan modelos univariantes y bivariantes en dos horizontes de tiempo: 1980-2007 y 2008-2016 con frecuencia trimestral, bajo el supuesto de exogeneidad de la variación en los precios del petróleo. También se estima un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR) con las tres variables objeto de análisis para los mismos horizontes temporales en el cual se postula endogeneidad de la variación de los precios del petróleo a efectos de comparación con el modelo VAR bivariante. Se utilizan el análisis de significatividad de los parámetros de los retardos distribuidos de los modelos así como las funciones de respuesta a un impulso para estudiar los efectos de los shocks del precio del petróleo sobre el crecimiento del PIB y la inflación.

Abstract

This paper empirically studies the relationship between oil price shocks and macroeconomic variables of gross domestic product growth and inflation rate. It also assesses the impact of the recent recession on this relationship for the following OECD countries: the United States, Spain, Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. To this end, univariate and bivariate models are employed over two time horizons:1980-2007 and 2008-2016 using quarterly data and assuming the exogeneity of oil price fluctuations. In addition, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model including all three variables under study is estimated for the same time periods, in which the endogeneity of oil price variation is postulated for comparison with the bivariate VAR model. The significance of the parameters in the distributed lag models, as well as impulse response functions, are used to study the effects of oil price shocks on GDP growth and inflation.

SELECTED WORK IN PROGRESS

• Geocoding of point-level firm data for spatial analysis.

• Reassessing the effect of China's economic development zone policies on manufacturing agglomeration.

(With Francisco Javier Velázquez Angona; David Martn Barroso)